Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Klamath County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Klamath County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---

# Klamath County

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Population growth is slowing
- High mortality rate, increasing since 2015
- Negative natural change will hamper growth
- New developments and GQ expansions expected to increase growth
- County and Klamath Falls population forecasts are up from last December

---

# Klamath at a Glance: 2020 Census

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Klamath </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 69,413 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.39 (32,730 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Klamath Employment Changes

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services Sector Jobs: 3,089","Year: 2013 County: Klamath Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 3,173","Year: 2018 County: Klamath Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 4,019","Year: 2023 County: Klamath Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 4,543"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(219,142,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Education and health services","legendgroup":"Education and health services","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1991.7727272727273,1996.7727272727273,2001.7727272727273,2006.7727272727273,2011.7727272727273,2016.7727272727273,2021.7727272727273],"y":[841,926,997,792,624,713,689],"text":["Year: 1993 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2018 County: Klamath Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 136","Year: 2023 County: Klamath Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 117"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[2011,2471,2440,2746,2344,2636,2655],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Klamath Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,011","Year: 1998 County: Klamath Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,471","Year: 2003 County: Klamath Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,440","Year: 2008 County: Klamath Industry: Leisure and hospitality 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---

# Klamath Migration Flows

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---

# Klamath Population

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Klamath's population is expected to increase, albeit slower than what has been observed in the past.
]

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---

# Klamath Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural change has been on the decline, lowering the impact of positive net migration.
]

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]

---

# Klamath Births

.pulll-right[
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---

# Klamath Deaths

.pulll-right[
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---

# Klamath Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Growth of the population 65 and older is expected to make the composition of the county more "top-heavy".
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2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 1,348","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 755","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Klamath Race and Ethnicity

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---

# Klamath UGB Population Changes

---

# Klamath UGBs: Bonanza in Context

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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.81% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 46.53% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 126 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 152 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 175 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 79.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.45% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.43% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.70 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.99 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.77 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,143 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,944 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $90,313 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.71% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.73% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Klamath County: Bonanza UGB Boundaries

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---

# Bonanza UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Bonanza UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Klamath UGBs: Chiloquin in Context

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.25% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.04% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 288 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 290 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 358 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.08% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.10 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.79 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $11,118 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $20,688 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $40,781 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 71.31% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 67.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 74.78% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Klamath County: Chiloquin UGB Boundaries

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# Chiloquin UGB Pop Forecast

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# Chiloquin UGB Pop Forecast

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# Klamath UGBs: Klamath Falls in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Klamath_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.49% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.76% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.68% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,364 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8,722 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9,979 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.86% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.76% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.08% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.37 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $13,353 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $28,498 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $46,695 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.67% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.14% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

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# Klamath County: Klamath Falls UGB Boundaries

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# Klamath Falls UGB Pop Forecast

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# Klamath Falls UGB Pop Forecast

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# Klamath UGBs: Malin in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Klamath_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.70% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.87% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.02% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 224 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 217 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 277 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.96% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.50% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.62 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.19 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.82 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,500 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,750 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,500 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.89% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.75% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

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# Klamath County: Malin UGB Boundaries

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---

# Malin UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Malin UGB Pop Forecast

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# Klamath UGBs: Merrill in Context

.pux-right[
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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.97% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.83% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.89% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 351 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 380 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 338 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.88% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.83% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.61 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.67 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $11,136 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $23,304 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,708 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.95% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.72% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Klamath County: Merrill UGB Boundaries

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# Merrill UGB Pop Forecast

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# Merrill UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts